Diplomatic Mobilisation and the Abraham Accords: Shifting Balances in the Western Sahara Conflict
Diplomatik Seferberlik ve Abraham Anlaşmaları: Batı Sahra Sorununda Değişen Dengeler
Although the Western Sahara issue has remained unresolved for nearly half a century, it has undergone a marked diplomatic shift in Morocco’s favour since 2020. This study examines why and how the international framework surrounding the issue was reshaped in the absence of either a decisive military development on the ground or a fundamental structural change in the international system. It aims to explain the relationship between the long-term diplomatic mobilisation pursued during the reign of King Mohammed VI, which made Western Sahara a central reference point of Moroccan foreign policy, and the United States’ recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory in December 2020. Within this framework, the article examines Morocco’s African outreach, the 2007 Autonomy Plan, its return to the African Union and its efforts to reduce international support for the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). It also considers the place of the US recognition decision, secured in connection with Morocco’s normalisation of relations with Israel, within the subsequent process encompassing policy changes by Spain, France and the United Kingdom, as well as United Nations Security Council Resolution 2797. The study adopts a qualitative research design and employs process tracing. The causal connections between Morocco’s long-term diplomatic initiatives, the US decision of 2020 and subsequent international developments are examined chronologically. It finds that Morocco’s diplomatic mobilisation eroded international support for the SADR but moved no permanent member of the Security Council. The decisive shift followed the United States’ recognition of December 2020, after which Spain, France and the United Kingdom changed position and Resolution 2797 took the autonomy plan as the basis for negotiation, leaving the diplomatic balance altered in Morocco’s favour though the dispute unresolved.
Batı Sahra sorunu, yaklaşık yarım yüzyıldır çözüme kavuşturulamamasına rağmen 2020 sonrasında Fas lehine belirgin bir diplomatik dönüşüm geçirmiştir. Bu çalışma, sahada sonucu belirleyen bir askerî gelişme veya uluslararası sistemde köklü bir yapısal değişim yaşanmadan sorunun uluslararası çerçevesinin neden ve nasıl yeniden şekillendiğini incelemektedir. Araştırmanın amacı, Kral VI. Muhammed döneminde Batı Sahra meselesini Fas dış politikasının temel referans noktalarından biri hâline getiren uzun soluklu diplomatik seferberlik ile ABD’nin Aralık 2020’de Batı Sahra üzerindeki Fas egemenliğini tanıması arasındaki ilişkiyi açıklamaktır. Bu kapsamda Fas’ın Afrika açılımı, 2007 Özerklik Planı, Afrika Birliği’ne dönüş süreci ve SADR’a yönelik uluslararası desteği azaltma girişimleri ele alınmaktadır. Ayrıca Fas’ın İsrail ile ilişkilerini normalleştirmesi karşılığında alınan ABD tanıma kararının, İspanya, Fransa ve Birleşik Krallık’ın sonraki politika değişiklikleri ile 2797 sayılı Birleşmiş Milletler Güvenlik Konseyi kararına uzanan süreçteki yeri değerlendirilmektedir. Çalışma, nitel bir araştırma tasarımına dayanmakta ve süreç izleme yöntemini kullanmaktadır. Fas’ın uzun vadeli diplomatik girişimleri, 2020’deki ABD kararı ve sonrasında uluslararası düzeyde yaşanan gelişmeler arasındaki nedensel bağlantılar kronolojik bir çerçevede incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın bulgusu, Fas’ın diplomatik seferberliğinin SADR’a yönelik uluslararası desteği aşındırdığı, ancak Güvenlik Konseyi’nin daimi üyelerinden hiçbirinin tutumunu değiştirmediği yönündedir. Belirleyici dönüşüm ABD’nin Aralık 2020’deki tanıma kararının ardından gerçekleşmiş, bunu İspanya, Fransa ve Birleşik Krallık’ın pozisyon değişiklikleri ile özerklik planını müzakerenin esası haline getiren 2797 sayılı karar izlemiş ve diplomatik denge Fas lehine değişirken uyuşmazlık çözümsüz kalmıştır.
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Makale Bilgileri
- Makale Türü Araştırma Makalesi
- Gönderildi Temmuz 28, 2026
- Kabul Edildi Ekim 3, 2026
- Yayınlanmış Ekim 15, 2026
- Sayı Sayı 17 (2026)
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